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This can be done by banning margin debt and other securities-based loans, and heavily taxing capital gains based on the length of time they were held for (the longer, the less tax). It would be even better if the government would enact policies to prevent speculation and subsequent bubbles in the first place. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states…”ĭue to the ETF revolution, it is a straightforward matter to gain exposure to the S&P500, including leveraged and inverse instruments. Gann is famous for saying: “Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. Given how large the S&P500 bubble has become, it is worth treading very carefully during this period for those exposed to US equities. To the economists we’ve spoken to, the peak could range between 2019M09 to 2020M03. The trough was in 2009, followed by a minor panic in 2015, when the S&P500 dipped but has since boomed.Īccording to the timetable, 2020 will be the peak of the equities bubble, followed by a major crash similar to that of the Dot-Com bubble. The GFC peak was off by one year 2007 instead of one year earlier in 2006. The updated timetable is amazingly accurate from that date onward, predicting the Dot-Com bubble peak in 2000 and its collapse. He realised that the timetable would have to be recalibrated on the 25th December 1989. Gann managed to predict the crash of 1929 years in advance. Just like the Geoist land market cycle, there is a repeating 18-year average between every major cycle.
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In 1908, Gann constructed his financial timetable, which tabulated the booms and busts, peaks and troughs of the US equities market. He concluded that equities exhibited a cyclical trend over decades and thus prices could be predicted long in advance. He was a successful and wealthy speculator, spending decades investigating patterns in equities markets. He was a finance trader who developed technical analysis tools and forecasting methods based on geometry, astronomy, astrology and ancient mathematics. For this, we must turn to the research of the original wizard of Wall Street, W.D.
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While the metrics noted above can accurately indicate the peak of an equities bubbles several months in advance, they cannot tell us anything years ahead of time. The name of the game is capital gains income is increasingly sidelined as yields become compressed to record lows. The trends in the S&P500 index and margin debt are obvious. In the case of equities, the type of debt used is margin debt. Like all asset bubbles, the primary cause is speculators taking on debt to bid up prices to ever-higher levels, generating a stream of greater fools willing to purchase at inflated valuations. Despite the many predictions of collapse, the bubble has powered on unhindered. This has led to a lot of commentary and media coverage that the S&P500 is in the thrall of yet another bubble that will burst. The market ‘recovered’ more quickly than anyone thought it would, and has continued surging from thereon in. The US stock market, as defined by the S&P500 index, has boomed after collapsing to a trough in 2009. Residential and commercial real estate prices are growing strongly, along with equities.
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